Learning from China
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      • Why did China grow so fast?
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Learning from China - Blog

A “nova mediocridade” do Ocidente e a ascensão econômica da China

6/1/2018

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​N​o recente artigo “A chegada do século da economia chinesa”[1], Justin Yifu Lin, ex-economista-chefe do Banco Mundial, argumentou que o centro mundial da teoria econômica passaria para a China.

“Eu também fiz uma previsão. No século 21, é bem possível que muitos mestres em Economia despontem a partir do estudo da economia chinesa. A importância de uma teoria depende da importância do fenômeno explicado por essa teoria. Se um fenômeno é importante, então explicar o fenômeno e revelar a lógica causal por trás dele tornam esta uma importante teoria. O que é um fenômeno importante? Os fenômenos que ocorrem em países importantes são importantes. Considerando a história do desenvolvimento da Economia moderna, Adam Smith publicou a Riqueza das Nações. Desde o final do século XVIII até meados do século XX, o centro da economia mundial, de contribuições significativas para a economia, foi o Reino Unido. A grande maioria dos principais estudiosos eram economistas britânicos ou estrangeiros que trabalhavam no Reino Unido.
Picture
Após as décadas de 1940 e 1950, a grande maioria dos economistas que fizeram grandes contribuições para a economia era de americanos ou eram economistas estrangeiros que trabalhavam nos Estados Unidos… Após a Primeira Guerra Mundial, o centro da economia mundial se mudou para os Estados Unidos. Os fenômenos econômicos mais importantes são os fenômenos que aparecem no centro da Economia mundial. Com essa transferência, o centro de pesquisa em Economia seguiu o mesmo caminho.

Em termos de paridade de poder de compra [PPP], a China se tornou a maior economia do mundo em 2014. Enquanto o desenvolvimento constante da China continua, então à taxa de câmbio média do mercado, é muito provável que ela se torne a maior economia do mundo até 2025. Atualmente, o país responde por 18% da economia mundial e será mais de 20% até 2025. Em 2050, a economia chinesa provavelmente representará entre 25% e 50% da economia mundial. Portanto, o centro da economia mundial pode mudar dos Estados Unidos para a China.

É muito provável estarmos assistindo à chegada de uma nova era de grande importância para a humanidade porque, de um dos países mais pobres do mundo, a China se tornou um país de renda média e se tornará um país de alta renda. A maioria dos países do mundo agora são países em desenvolvimento – países de baixa renda e países de renda média. Eles têm a vontade de se modernizar e se tornar países de alta renda. Assim sendo, é necessário resumir as inovações teóricas realizadas na experiência econômica da China e desenvolver melhores meios de testar a contribuição dessas teorias”.

De fato, o objetivo é alcançar o crescimento sustentável mais rápido em uma das principais economia da história humana. A China já teve que passar por testes decisivos da superioridade de seu pensamento econômico. Mais fundamentalmente, de positivo, a “economia de mercado socialista”, criada por Deng Xiaoping, Chen Yun e seus colaboradores, foi algo sem precedentes na história humana – uma conquista intelectual e teórica da mais alta ordem. Isso é analisado extensivamente no meu livro O Grande Jogo de Xadrez e de uma maneira mais popular em um artigo cujo título é autoexplicativo: “Deng Xiaoping: o maior economista do mundo”[2].

O sucesso da China não foi meramente prático, mas teórico, porque suas políticas foram levadas a cabo em clara oposição à teoria econômica ortodoxa ocidental dominante, e  com a China apresentando seus próprios conceitos econômicos. Como Justin Lin Yifu observou: “Havia um consenso [ocidental] de que os resultados econômicos da política gradual e de trilha dupla que a China realizava seriam piores… Mas agora, olhando para trás, a China é a economia de crescimento mais rápido e estável das últimas quatro décadas. Os países que sofreram uma reestruturação pela terapia de choque do Consenso de Washington sofreram uma crise de colapso econômico e estagnação”.

http://revistaopera.com.br/2018/01/05/nova-mediocridade-ocidente-e-ascensao-economica-da-china/?utm_content=buffer5c932&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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  • Home
  • Economy
    • Economic development & China >
      • Economic growth & human well-being - the example of China
      • China is the greatest economic growth in human history
      • Why China's social achievements are even greater than its economic ones
      • Why China will grow rich long before it grows old
      • China faces slower Western growth than in the Great Depression
      • China's 'socialist development strategy' outperformed Western alternatives
      • Why did China grow so fast?
      • Why are China and India growing so fast?
      • The 'Belt & Road' region will be the main locomotive of the world economy
      • Growth in the G7 'Great Stagnation' Will Be Slower than in the Great Depression!
      • What China achieving 'moderate prosperity' means for itself & the world
      • China is now the main pillar of globalisation
      • Solar power illustrates China's manufacturing future
      • Why China has made the world's greatest contribution to increasing human rights
      • Socialist policies can help famine-stricken countries
      • Here’s why China and BRICS will drive global economic growth
      • BRICS are more important for world growth than the G7
    • Economic theory >
      • China's & Western economic theory >
        • Deng Xiaoping & John Maynard Keynes
        • Deng Xiaoping - the world's greatest economist
        • Why Adam Smith’s ‘classical theory’ correctly explained Asia’s growth
        • The global significance of China's discussion on the economy's 'supply side'
        • China lacks innovation? Take another look
        • A Copernican Revolution in Western economics & China’s supply side reform
        • Why Chinese neo-liberals are forced to falsify world history
        • Why China won't suffer a Western type financial crisis
      • Macro-economics & growth theory >
        • A damaging confusion in Western economics books
        • To become a high income economy China needs to study facts not myths
        • How Singapore achieved a higher per capita GDP than the US
        • The most important book on economic growth to have appeared for many years
        • Why do Western economies have hard landings but China doesn't?
        • Reality & myth of the US 'internet revolution'
      • International monetary system >
        • Europe's crisis & the Euro - predicted in advance
        • The limits of RMB internationalisation
        • China is right to maintain & tighten capital controls
      • China vs the errors of 'shock therapy' >
        • Why the economic reform succeeded in China & will fail in Russia
        • An economist's Mein Kampf
        • How IMF policies helped oligarchs loot Russia - lessons for China and other countries
    • US Economy & China >
      • Why neo-liberalism destabilised US politics
      • Why the US remains locked in slow growth
      • Economic logic behind Trump's foreign policy - the key countries are Germany &China
      • Trump's economy - cyclical upturn and long term slow growth
      • Economic data shows claim of US 'strong economic recovery' was a myth
      • The damaging blind alley of US protectionism
      • US economic growth under Trump - explained in 3 charts
      • China's economy is growing three times as fast as the US
      • The ‘Anglo-Saxon’ political crisis - from Reagan & Thatcher to Trump & Brexit
      • Why the US turned protectionist - while China defends an open global econmy
      • Why Trump won’t persuade Apple to produce the iPhone in the US not China
      • The American Way leads to Americans dying early
  • Foreign Policy
    • China's international relations >
      • China & India >
        • A 'must read' article on current China-India disputes
      • China & Russia >
        • Good China-Russia relations are the guarantee of world peace
        • Increasing interest in Russia in China's economic policy
        • What is really behind Trump's obsession with Russia
      • China & the US >
        • Why 'China bashing' is a disaster for the US people
        • Why a US-China ‘Thucydides Trap’ can be avoided
        • The real reason for the US South China Sea provocation
        • The real sinister relation of the US & 'jihadism'?
        • The neo-con forces behind Trump's Twitter attacks on China
        • Why the US not China threatens world peace
    • Theoretical bases of China's foreign policy >
      • Theoretical bases of China's "win-win" foreign policy concept
      • Hamburg G20 Summit highlights China's 'thought leadership'
      • How Xi Jinping’s Marxism out-thinks the West
      • One year on, impact of Xi's agenda-setting Davos speech still felt
  • China Analysts
    • New economic data shows diorientation of US foreign policy analysts
    • China's GDP data destroys ‘hard landing' myth again
    • Wrong analyses of China - listed by author and date
  • China's History
    • The truth about China’s crucial role World War II is not only history
    • Comparison of Hong Kong and ‘poor whites’ in the US South
  • Other languages
    • 中文文章 >
      • 作为英国人我想对香港说,忘了港英时代吧!
    • Em Português >
      • Lições do desenvolvimento econômico da China para a América Latina
  • Blog
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    • Exchange rates
    • Key China data
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      • US
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